Why Segwit2x Is Doomed to Fail
With two weeks remaining until it’s slated to launch, all eyes are on the imminent hard fork of the bitcoin software: Segwit2x.
Its significance? The fear that it could initiate the largest and most contentious chain split that bitcoin, and perhaps any cryptocurrency, has yet seen. Such an event could have devastating consequences for the ecosystem and its wider perception.
However, a close analysis of the dynamics at play shows that these fears are largely overblown. More likely is the avoidance (or quick resolution) of such a split, one that will also serve as an important test that bolsters the perception of bitcoin as a secure store of value.
A number of factors have contributed to escalating this situation and making it a completely unprecedented, and therefore one understandably shrouded in uncertainty.
Other controversial forks seeking to increase the block size have come and gone with little incident under the names of Bitcoin XT, Bitcoin Classic and Bitcoin Unlimited. However, 2x differs from these previous attempts in two distinct and important ways.
The first is in its substantial backing. The scheduled 2x fork is the result of the “New York Agreement” between an impressive collection of major industry players including miners, wallets, exchanges and payment processors.
At its inception, the agreement claimed the participation of 58 companies located in 22 countries including many of the largest in the ecosystem, and 83.28% of miner hashing power. This represented the most significant push for any hard fork to increase the block size by far.
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